In 2010, the world market for preventive vaccines totaled $25.3 billion, up from $21.7 billion in 2009. The world vaccines market is predicted to increase at a compound annual rate of 9.3% during 2010–2015, reaching $39.5 billion in 2015 as new product introductions continue and usage of current products expands further.
Sales of adult vaccines are expected to continue to increase at a faster rate than pediatric vaccines over the forecast period of this report, at 10.3% and 8.4% per year, respectively. Pediatric vaccines constitute the larger market, accounting for 50.4% of the total vaccines market in 2010 (Figure). As influenza vaccines continue to expand, however, adult vaccines will gain share, increasing their position from 49.6% in 2010 to 51.7% in 2015.
On a regional basis, the United States was the single largest market for pediatric and adult vaccines combined, accounting for 34.6% of the overall market in 2010. From 2006 to 2010, the U.S. slightly underperformed the overall market, expanding by 21.0% per year compared with 21.4% per year. Annual growth through 2015 will lag even more, at 8.2%, while in other markets, such as South America, Europe, India, China, and the rest of world, growth will be in double digits.
Although India is home to more than 17% of the world’s population, it accounted for just 6.4% of global vaccine sales in 2010 due to a high poverty rate and relatively low healthcare spending. However, the country is rapidly modernizing and its gross domestic product is among the highest in the world. As a result, it will continue to experience market-beating growth in vaccine sales as its healthcare infrastructure improves and government continues to work toward eradicating several serious diseases such as polio.
Furthermore, India’s rapidly expanding pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries will supply many of the products used in the future, particularly as foreign investment from leading vaccine producers, such as Sanofi Pasteur, increases. As this occurs, vaccine sales will rise by 11.0% per year, from $1.8 billion in 2010 to $2.7 billion in 2015.
China similarly accounts for just 7.4% of the global vaccine market, although it represents over 19% of the world’s population. Even more so than India, China is committed to expanding its economy and has instituted many important measures and programs to advance this objective.
Most recently, the country hosted the 2010 Summer Olympic Games as well as the 2010 World Expo. These two events contributed to massive infrastructure buildouts across the country and particularly around Shanghai as broad networks of highways, hotels, utility providers, and other key resources were either upgraded or established from scratch. Within the vaccine industry, several leading global manufacturers including GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis are expanding their positions in China.
As in the 2006 to 2010 period, China’s vaccine sales growth will outpace that of the market in 2010 to 2015. Sales of $1.8 billion in 2010 will rise by 10.8% per year to reach $3.1 billion in 2015.
South America currently accounts for 6.7% of the world vaccine market and as in the past, future growth will continue to outpace market growth as relatively low vaccine penetration in many countries continues to rise. Furthermore, many serious illnesses such as yellow fever remain endemic throughout the area. As this occurs, sales will rise by 10.0% per year from $1.7 billion in 2010 to $2.7 billion in 2015.
As these areas grow both in their need and the ability and willingness of the healthcare systems to pay, further growth in vaccine sales is expected. These emerging markets are just one factor in the overall vaccine sales growth expected, but it is a significant one.