My latest proposal might be more palatable to the U.S. government; it recommends stimulating the economy by partnering indirectly with angel investors (high net worth individuals making venture investments). According to the National Science Board, for the four-year period ending in 2006, total U.S. angel investments, averaging $22.5 billion annually, were only 3.3% smaller than total U.S. VC investments. Most importantly, though, almost 90% of angel investment funds, in contrast to only about 20% of VC funds, were placed in start-ups and early-stage companies.
I believe that the federal government could stimulate the placement of start-up and early-stage investments by creating tax incentives for angel investors, whereby both the investors and the government reap gains if the investments grow. Currently, if an angel invests in a company, long-term capital gains are subject to a 15% tax and long-term capital losses offset long-term capital gains.
Suppose, however, that angel investors were able to receive an immediate 25% tax credit on all investments made in privately held companies whose common stock and additional paid-in capital were less than $10 million prior to such investments, with the tax credit even being applied against payment of estimated income taxes. The quid pro quo would be that the government would reap 25% of any resulting capital gains.
It turns out that both the investor’s and the government’s net return, to net risk ratios are identical when the proposed tax treatment is compared with the conventional long-term capital gains treatment. However, under the proposed system, the investor would likely be more willing to invest and even invest larger sums, and the government’s net return as compared to capital gains taxes recovered under current law, would be considerably higher.
For example, suppose an investor were to invest $100,000 today. The investor’s maximum risk equals 85% of the investment or $85,000, if a 100% loss reduces long-term capital gains taxes by 15%. The government’s maximum risk is $15,000 of less tax collected. However, if in the long run, the investor’s return to investment ratio reaches 2.5, the gross return would total $250,000, of which $150,000 would equal the capital gain. The government would receive 15% of the gain or $22,500 as capital gains tax, so the investor’s net return after taxes would equal $127,500.
Under the proposed system, since the investor receives a tax credit equal to 25% of the $100,000 investment or $25,000, the investor’s maximum risk equals $75,000. The government’s maximum risk is $25,000 less tax collected.
However, if the investor’s return to investment ratio reaches 2.5, the net return of $150,000 would be shared as follows: 25% or $37,500 would go to the government, and the investor would keep $112,500. While the investor receives a smaller net return from a gross investment of $100,000, when comparing the proposed system to the current system, the net investment is only $75,000 due to the tax credit, $25,000 less than under the current system.
Under the current system, if the investor invests $75,000 and in the long run achieves a return to investment ratio of 2.5, the gross return of $187,500 causes a long-term gain of $112,500. This gain is subject to a 15% capital gains tax equaling $16,875, which results in a net return of $95,625 or 15% less than the net return of $112,500 resulting from the same net investment under the proposed system.
Indeed, for the same level of net investment and for any positive long-term return to investment ratio, for both the government and the investor the net return under the proposed system exceeds that under the current system, by almost 18% for the investor and over 122% for the government.
Implementation of the proposed system would likely stimulate more and/or greater angel investments in start-ups and early-stage companies, not only because of a higher net return to the investor, but also because the investor would essentially be reimbursed for 25% of the amount invested.
If the resulting net investments remained unchanged, gross investments would be 33% higher, so that at the historical levels mentioned previously in this article angels would invest $7.5 billion more per year. Employing the methodologies described in the proposal that was submitted to the government last year, I have calculated that over 650,000 new jobs would be created over five years.
In addition, the National Venture Capital Association previously reported that for the 20-year period ending December 31, 2007 (the year before the onset of the recent recession), U.S. VC firms earned an average annualized return on investment of 16.7%, even though this period included the dot-com bubble. If over the next 20 years angel investors earn only half of that return, the government’s 25% share in an annual average of $30 billion invested would yield around $350 billion. The angels would end up with $1.4 trillion, and many more high-risk start-ups exploiting state-of-the-art technologies would be funded.
Cutting-edge biotechnology companies, in particular, would benefit, thereby fostering the development of breakthrough products in areas as diverse as personalized medicine, nanobiotechnology, biofuels, and agricultural and industrial biotechnology.